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8FOCUS8 wrote:...My problem today is luck. I dont know if i have the worst luck in the world or if i am just expiencing poker... Oh yeah, you are experiencing poker. A decent poker player could expect
to cash in 15%-30% of the MTTs that they play. But most of the time
that won't happen in literally 1 out of every 3 to 1 out of every 6
games, it will just average out that way in the long run. My longest
non-cash streak to date has been a whopping 44 games in a row! Then I broke that streak by actually winning (1st place!) three
games in a row! While those are both highly unusual results, they do
illustrate the swings in the game. And although 44 games in a row is
alot to lose, I do, sadly, expect to break that personal record some
day. Not sure if I'll ever manage 4 consecutive wins to beat the old
win streak record though.
8FOCUS8 wrote:...I have made a spread sheet to track my MTT play...This is a great idea. I always track all of my progress, ring games,
sngs, mtts, deposits, withdrawls, big hands, big pots, big wins, big
losses, times, dates, opponents, everything. I think it's important for
anyone who wants to be successful at anything to keep track of details.
Alot of hidden patterns can emerge when solid records are kept, and
these patterns can be used as yet another weapon in a poker player's
arsenal to increase their edge.
8FOCUS8 wrote: ...In the last 15 i have played i have yet
to see the $. I have gone out 2- 11 spots before the money in my last 6
events.These are freeroles with an average of 6000...
Part of the reason for the not cashing may be the size of the field and
the payouts. If this tourney pays out 600-1200 places, I'd say keep
playing your A-game, you'll hit money soon. I'm not sure what freeroll
this is, but many sites don't offer great payouts. For instance, Carbon Poker
offers freerolls throughout the day with around 500 players, but they
only pay out the top 10. This is about 1/5th of what a normal payout
structure would look like, so an average player should expect to see a
serious reduction in their ITM % in these games. Full Tilt's
public freerolls have 2,700 participants and pay out only 27 places.
That's only 1% of the field versus the normal 10% payout of their
buy-in tournaments! Therefore, if a good player can expect to cash in
about 20% of their tournaments with a 10% payout, they should only
expect to cash in about 2% in games with a 1% payout.[shameless plug 
] If you want to increase your odds of cashing, make sure to
participate in the donkhard freerolls & tourneys. Our tournaments
offer 10%-30% payouts, vastly increasing your odds of making some
money. On Full Tilt
for example, we usually only have about 350 players in our freerolls
(rather than the 2,700 players in their public freerolls), and we
usually payout in the range of 36 to 63 players (rather than the only
27 places paid in the public freerolls). Much better odds and a fairer
amount of rewards for the solid players.
8FOCUS8 wrote:...In the last three i went out with AKs
after floping AK.Beat by a set of 5s. I went out withQQ after floping a
set. Beat by four 10s, forth ten and only out on the river.Most
recently i got beat with AA after turning a set. The winner hit a J on
the river for a gut shot strait. So is this my bad play or would you
say that I am unlucky?...I couldn't make a fair call here either way without knowing how you and
your opponent(s) played the hands. In my rookie days, I used to spike a
set and then "trap" them all the way to the river if I had to. Of
course after taking enough beatings from letting my opponents catch
their straights or flushes for free, I learned that a "trap" will snare
whoever lands in it, be it hunter or game.Oh no wait, I can
make a call about the QQQTT versus TTTT hand. Yeah, you're going to
loose all your chips on that one. Period. Most of the time, even the
best players will, especially if it the Qs were top set. You got top
boat, and the likelihood of anyone hitting quads is too rare to lose
sleep (or muck top boats) over. It's a heartbreaking feeling to be on
the losing end of that one, but it would be tough for anyone to really
say that you did the wrong thing when you lost your chips. The guy's
not mucking a set of tens, and you're not mucking a set of queens, and
98% of the time, you will win that hand.Keep playing, learning,
and tracking your progress. The streak will break sometime. Feel free
to come back and share some more gut-wrenchers with us and let us know
how it goes when the non-cash streak goes crumbling down!Good luck!
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